Contradictory accounts of the last few weeks paint a puzzling picture of infant mortality trends. Few outcomes are as clear-cut and none is more tragic than the death of a child; concerns about the reliability of the science that drives the statistics can only add to the agonies inside international health organizations.

UNICEF reports encouragingly that the number of children dying before the age of five has dropped below ten million for first time since records began. It says the benefits of immunization campaigns, breast feeding, mosquito nets, Vitamin A supplements and other measures have combined to drive down deaths in 50 countries from 13m in 199